THESISCAIRN PRIVATE INTELLIGENCE · V3.5 EXPANDED
ThesisCairn OS
Macro regime, equities, crypto, AI infrastructure, research log and source discipline.
THESISCAIRN MACRO REGIME
—/100
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CONFIDENCE—
INTERPRETATION
Waiting for score engine…
DIVERGENCE—
DECISION SUMMARY
TOP SECTOR SIGNALS
NEXT DEEP-DIVE QUEUE
QUALITY GUARD
TOP POSITIVE DRIVERS
TOP NEGATIVE DRIVERS
REGIME HISTORY
V3.0 starts daily snapshotsLIVE SIGNALS—
GREEN—
AMBER—
RED—
LAST SYNCConnecting…
20-SIGNAL MACRO STACK
Macro Signal Map
Click any card for history, formula, source and data-confidence details.
EQUITY DECISION LAYER
US Sector & Stock Opportunity Screener
Not run yet
Run
npm run screener:refresh. Yahoo mode needs no API token; EODHD mode needs EODHD_API_TOKEN.TOP 5 US SECTORS / CLUSTERS
TOP SPECULATIVE SATELLITES
DECISION QUEUE · CORE/SATELLITE CANDIDATES
DATA QUALITY GUARD · QUARANTINED ANOMALIES
BTC / LIQUIDITY WATCH
Crypto Market Structure
Macro linked
TODAY'S READ
NEXT DATA LAYER
Liquidity mapBTC price levels, liquidation clusters and open interest shifts.
Flow stackETF flows, exchange netflows, stablecoin supply and funding rates.
Narrative tagSeparate confirmed signal, interpretation and speculative watch.
SECOND-ORDER AI TRADE
AI x Markets Thesis Board
Portfolio lens
INFRASTRUCTURE
APPLICATION LAYER
Software leverageTrack margin expansion, workflow lock-in and enterprise adoption.
Model dependencyWatch firms renting the same intelligence layer as competitors.
RISK CHECK
Capex digestionHigher spend must convert into revenue quality and free cash flow.
Power bottleneckGrid, cooling and energy constraints can become the real AI multiple gate.
THESIS MEMORY
Research Log & Decision Queue
Daily operating layer
SIGNALS TO LOG
DECISION PROTOCOL
1. Confirmed signalWhat changed in the data or source material?
2. InterpretationWhat might the market be mispricing?
3. FalsificationWhat would prove this thesis wrong?
4. Next actionDeep dive, watch, defer, reject or escalate.
V3.1 HISTORICAL VALIDATION
Regime Backtest & Calibration
Not run yet
Run
npm run backtest:prod after deploying V3.1 to populate historical validation.OUT-OF-SAMPLE · SPY · 3M
SCORE → 3M RETURN CORRELATION
V3.2 CALIBRATION & TRANSITION LAB
What actually carries signal?
Not calibrated yet
Run
npm run calibrate:prod to analyze the existing backtest without re-downloading benchmark history.OOS · SPY · 3M · TRAIN-DERIVED SCORE QUINTILES
OOS · SPY · 3M · PILLAR CORRELATIONS
OOS · SPY · 3M · LEVEL × 3M MOMENTUM
OOS · SPY · 3M · DRAWDOWN RISK
DIAGNOSTIC FINDINGS
DATA QUALITY & SOURCE DISCIPLINE
Source Health, Proxy Flags and Anomaly Guard
Waiting
MACRO SOURCE COVERAGE
SCREENER QUALITY FLAGS
Yahoo-Free mode is a private research fallback. Static proxies and data anomalies must never be treated as institution-grade fundamentals.
OPERATING CONTROLS
ThesisCairn Admin Runbook
Manual confirmation required
NORMAL REFRESH
npm run refresh:prodSmart macro refresh. Uses V3.3 incremental writes and skips sources that are not due.
SCREENER REFRESH
MAX_ROWS=100 ENRICH_LIMIT=0 npm run screener:refreshYahoo-Free decision queue refresh. No token required; still data-limited.
VERIFY
npm run verify:prod
npm run screener:prodCheck dashboard APIs, regime, source health and latest screener snapshot.
SPECIAL MAINTENANCE
npm run backtest:prod
npm run calibrate:prodRun only intentionally. These are validation jobs, not daily cron tasks.