{"regime":{"version":"3.0","generatedAt":"2026-09-04T10:55:07.555Z","score":63.4,"confidence":81.3,"dataQuality":86.3,"coherence":61.6,"regime":"NEUTRAL / TRANSITION","posture":"PATIENCE","divergence":{"level":"MODERATE","spread":19.2,"message":"Systemic Risk is the strongest pillar while Liquidity is the weakest (19.2pt spread)."},"pillars":[{"pillar":"Cycle","score":63.5,"confidence":88.8,"weight":0.25,"metricCount":5,"liveMetricCount":5},{"pillar":"Inflation & Policy","score":60.3,"confidence":85,"weight":0.25,"metricCount":6,"liveMetricCount":6},{"pillar":"Liquidity","score":55.2,"confidence":87.5,"weight":0.25,"metricCount":4,"liveMetricCount":4},{"pillar":"Systemic Risk","score":74.4,"confidence":83.9,"weight":0.25,"metricCount":5,"liveMetricCount":5}],"metricScores":[{"id":"global_cli","title":"Global Leading Cycle Index","pillar":"Cycle","rawScore":55.5,"effectiveScore":54.6,"confidence":85,"freshnessFactor":85,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.25,"globalWeight":0.0625,"contribution":0.29,"asOf":"2026-06-01","note":"Level 100.36; 3M momentum -0.03"},{"id":"global_cycle_breadth","title":"Global Cycle Breadth","pillar":"Cycle","rawScore":33,"effectiveScore":35.5,"confidence":85,"freshnessFactor":85,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":-0.72,"asOf":"2026-06-01","note":"6/17 economies improving"},{"id":"us_gdp_nowcast","title":"US GDP Nowcast","pillar":"Cycle","rawScore":89.5,"effectiveScore":89.5,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":1.97,"asOf":"2026-09-03","note":"GDPNow 4.70% annualized"},{"id":"us_economic_momentum","title":"US Cycle Momentum","pillar":"Cycle","rawScore":59.6,"effectiveScore":58.2,"confidence":85,"freshnessFactor":85,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":0.41,"asOf":"2026-06-01","note":"U.S. CLI 3M change 0.16 pts"},{"id":"labor_recession_signal","title":"US Labor Recession Signal","pillar":"Cycle","rawScore":92,"effectiveScore":87.8,"confidence":90,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":90,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.15,"globalWeight":0.0375,"contribution":1.42,"asOf":"2026-07-01","note":"Labor gap 0.00pp; recession threshold 0.50pp"},{"id":"gscpi","title":"Global Supply Chain Pressure","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":60.4,"effectiveScore":59.4,"confidence":90,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":90,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.1,"globalWeight":0.025,"contribution":0.23,"asOf":"2026-07-01","note":"Supply-chain pressure 0.79σ"},{"id":"core_cpi_momentum","title":"US Core Inflation Momentum","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":91.9,"effectiveScore":91.9,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":2.1,"asOf":"2026-07-01","note":"Core CPI 3M annualized 1.59%"},{"id":"inflation_nowcast","title":"US Inflation Nowcast","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":89.6,"effectiveScore":89.6,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.15,"globalWeight":0.0375,"contribution":1.49,"asOf":"2026-09-04","note":"Core CPI nowcast 2.32% YoY"},{"id":"yield_curve_10y2y","title":"US Yield Curve 10Y–2Y","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":62.5,"effectiveScore":62.5,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.15,"globalWeight":0.0375,"contribution":0.47,"asOf":"2026-09-03","note":"Curve 0.43pp"},{"id":"real_yield_10y","title":"US 10Y Real Yield","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":24.2,"effectiveScore":24.2,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":-1.29,"asOf":"2026-09-03","note":"10Y real yield 2.42%"},{"id":"global_policy_breadth","title":"Global Monetary Policy Breadth","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":21.3,"effectiveScore":41.5,"confidence":29.8,"freshnessFactor":35,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":85,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":-0.43,"asOf":"2026-07","note":"Easing balance -35.3pp"},{"id":"fed_net_liquidity","title":"Fed Net Liquidity","pillar":"Liquidity","rawScore":51.9,"effectiveScore":51.9,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.35,"globalWeight":0.0875,"contribution":0.17,"asOf":"2026-08-26","note":"4W net-liquidity change 0.10%"},{"id":"euro_m3_growth","title":"Euro Liquidity Growth","pillar":"Liquidity","rawScore":61.4,"effectiveScore":61.4,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":0.57,"asOf":"2026-07","note":"Euro M3 3.38% YoY"},{"id":"global_cb_liquidity_impulse","title":"Global Central Bank Liquidity Impulse","pillar":"Liquidity","rawScore":29.7,"effectiveScore":39.9,"confidence":50,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":50,"baseWeight":0.25,"globalWeight":0.0625,"contribution":-0.63,"asOf":"2026-Q2","note":"CB assets/GDP impulse -1.20pp"},{"id":"broad_usd_pressure","title":"Broad USD Liquidity Pressure","pillar":"Liquidity","rawScore":74,"effectiveScore":74,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":1.2,"asOf":"2026-08","note":"Broad USD 1M change -1.45%"},{"id":"nfci","title":"US Financial Conditions","pillar":"Systemic Risk","rawScore":77.7,"effectiveScore":74.9,"confidence":90,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":90,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.25,"globalWeight":0.0625,"contribution":1.56,"asOf":"2026-08-28","note":"NFCI -0.56; lower = easier conditions"},{"id":"global_financial_stress","title":"US Financial Stress","pillar":"Systemic Risk","rawScore":84.4,"effectiveScore":81,"confidence":90,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":90,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.25,"globalWeight":0.0625,"contribution":1.94,"asOf":"2026-08-28","note":"Financial stress -0.85; lower = calmer"},{"id":"corporate_credit_distress","title":"High-Yield Credit Stress","pillar":"Systemic Risk","rawScore":83.5,"effectiveScore":80.2,"confidence":90,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":90,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.25,"globalWeight":0.0625,"contribution":1.88,"asOf":"2026-09-01","note":"High-yield OAS 265bp"},{"id":"spec_positioning","title":"Speculative Positioning Score","pillar":"Systemic Risk","rawScore":47.6,"effectiveScore":48.4,"confidence":66.7,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":66.7,"baseWeight":0.1,"globalWeight":0.025,"contribution":-0.04,"asOf":"2026-08-25","note":"CFTC risk-appetite score 47.6/100"},{"id":"global_credit_vulnerability","title":"Global Credit Vulnerability","pillar":"Systemic Risk","rawScore":81.2,"effectiveScore":70.3,"confidence":65,"freshnessFactor":65,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.15,"globalWeight":0.0375,"contribution":0.76,"asOf":"2025-Q4","note":"Median private credit gap -8.01pp"}],"positiveDrivers":[{"id":"core_cpi_momentum","title":"US Core Inflation Momentum","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":91.9,"effectiveScore":91.9,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":2.1,"asOf":"2026-07-01","note":"Core CPI 3M annualized 1.59%"},{"id":"us_gdp_nowcast","title":"US GDP Nowcast","pillar":"Cycle","rawScore":89.5,"effectiveScore":89.5,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":1.97,"asOf":"2026-09-03","note":"GDPNow 4.70% annualized"},{"id":"global_financial_stress","title":"US Financial Stress","pillar":"Systemic Risk","rawScore":84.4,"effectiveScore":81,"confidence":90,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":90,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.25,"globalWeight":0.0625,"contribution":1.94,"asOf":"2026-08-28","note":"Financial stress -0.85; lower = calmer"}],"negativeDrivers":[{"id":"real_yield_10y","title":"US 10Y Real Yield","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":24.2,"effectiveScore":24.2,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":-1.29,"asOf":"2026-09-03","note":"10Y real yield 2.42%"},{"id":"global_cycle_breadth","title":"Global Cycle Breadth","pillar":"Cycle","rawScore":33,"effectiveScore":35.5,"confidence":85,"freshnessFactor":85,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":-0.72,"asOf":"2026-06-01","note":"6/17 economies improving"},{"id":"global_cb_liquidity_impulse","title":"Global Central Bank Liquidity Impulse","pillar":"Liquidity","rawScore":29.7,"effectiveScore":39.9,"confidence":50,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":50,"baseWeight":0.25,"globalWeight":0.0625,"contribution":-0.63,"asOf":"2026-Q2","note":"CB assets/GDP impulse -1.20pp"}],"interpretation":["The macro backdrop is mixed and transitional; patience and signal confirmation matter more than directional conviction.","Cycle 63.5, Inflation & Policy 60.3, Liquidity 55.2, Systemic Risk 74.4 (100 = benign/supportive).","Systemic Risk is the strongest pillar while Liquidity is the weakest (19.2pt spread).","Strongest support: US Core Inflation Momentum. Main drag: US 10Y Real Yield."]},"methodology":{"version":"3.0","pillarWeights":{"Cycle":0.25,"Inflation & Policy":0.25,"Liquidity":0.25,"Systemic Risk":0.25},"principle":"Each metric is continuously scored 0–100. Data-quality confidence = freshness × source × coverage. Low-confidence signals are shrunk toward neutral (50), not discarded.","regimeBands":[{"min":78,"label":"RISK-ON"},{"min":65,"label":"SELECTIVE RISK-ON"},{"min":50,"label":"NEUTRAL / TRANSITION"},{"min":38,"label":"DEFENSIVE"},{"min":0,"label":"RISK-OFF"}]}}