{"regime":{"version":"3.0","generatedAt":"2026-11-02T12:02:39.661Z","score":58.5,"confidence":77.4,"dataQuality":82.5,"coherence":59,"regime":"NEUTRAL / TRANSITION","posture":"PATIENCE","divergence":{"level":"MODERATE","spread":20.5,"message":"Systemic Risk is the strongest pillar while Liquidity is the weakest (20.5pt spread)."},"pillars":[{"pillar":"Cycle","score":64.8,"confidence":98.5,"weight":0.25,"metricCount":5,"liveMetricCount":5},{"pillar":"Inflation & Policy","score":55.1,"confidence":83,"weight":0.25,"metricCount":6,"liveMetricCount":6},{"pillar":"Liquidity","score":46.8,"confidence":82.6,"weight":0.25,"metricCount":4,"liveMetricCount":4},{"pillar":"Systemic Risk","score":67.3,"confidence":65.9,"weight":0.25,"metricCount":5,"liveMetricCount":5}],"metricScores":[{"id":"global_cli","title":"Global Leading Cycle Index","pillar":"Cycle","rawScore":51,"effectiveScore":51,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.25,"globalWeight":0.0625,"contribution":0.06,"asOf":"2026-09-01","note":"Level 100.14; 3M momentum -0.06"},{"id":"global_cycle_breadth","title":"Global Cycle Breadth","pillar":"Cycle","rawScore":53.9,"effectiveScore":53.9,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":0.19,"asOf":"2026-09-01","note":"9/17 economies improving"},{"id":"us_gdp_nowcast","title":"US GDP Nowcast","pillar":"Cycle","rawScore":76.7,"effectiveScore":76.7,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":1.34,"asOf":"2026-10-29","note":"GDPNow 3.20% annualized"},{"id":"us_economic_momentum","title":"US Cycle Momentum","pillar":"Cycle","rawScore":63.8,"effectiveScore":63.8,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":0.69,"asOf":"2026-09-01","note":"U.S. CLI 3M change 0.24 pts"},{"id":"labor_recession_signal","title":"US Labor Recession Signal","pillar":"Cycle","rawScore":92,"effectiveScore":87.8,"confidence":90,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":90,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.15,"globalWeight":0.0375,"contribution":1.42,"asOf":"2026-09-01","note":"Labor gap 0.00pp; recession threshold 0.50pp"},{"id":"gscpi","title":"Global Supply Chain Pressure","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":40.8,"effectiveScore":41.7,"confidence":90,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":90,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.1,"globalWeight":0.025,"contribution":-0.21,"asOf":"2026-09-01","note":"Supply-chain pressure 1.28σ"},{"id":"core_cpi_momentum","title":"US Core Inflation Momentum","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":89.5,"effectiveScore":83.5,"confidence":85,"freshnessFactor":85,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":1.68,"asOf":"2026-08-01","note":"Core CPI 3M annualized 1.43%"},{"id":"inflation_nowcast","title":"US Inflation Nowcast","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":86.4,"effectiveScore":86.4,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.15,"globalWeight":0.0375,"contribution":1.37,"asOf":"2026-11-02","note":"Core CPI nowcast 2.48% YoY"},{"id":"yield_curve_10y2y","title":"US Yield Curve 10Y–2Y","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":60.7,"effectiveScore":60.7,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.15,"globalWeight":0.0375,"contribution":0.4,"asOf":"2026-10-30","note":"Curve 0.38pp"},{"id":"real_yield_10y","title":"US 10Y Real Yield","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":20.6,"effectiveScore":20.6,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":-1.47,"asOf":"2026-10-30","note":"10Y real yield 2.60%"},{"id":"global_policy_breadth","title":"Global Monetary Policy Breadth","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":21.5,"effectiveScore":40,"confidence":35,"freshnessFactor":35,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":-0.5,"asOf":"2026-09","note":"Easing balance -35.0pp"},{"id":"fed_net_liquidity","title":"Fed Net Liquidity","pillar":"Liquidity","rawScore":44.4,"effectiveScore":44.4,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.35,"globalWeight":0.0875,"contribution":-0.49,"asOf":"2026-10-28","note":"4W net-liquidity change -0.31%"},{"id":"euro_m3_growth","title":"Euro Liquidity Growth","pillar":"Liquidity","rawScore":62.4,"effectiveScore":60.5,"confidence":85,"freshnessFactor":85,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":0.53,"asOf":"2026-08","note":"Euro M3 3.49% YoY"},{"id":"global_cb_liquidity_impulse","title":"Global Central Bank Liquidity Impulse","pillar":"Liquidity","rawScore":29.7,"effectiveScore":41.4,"confidence":42.5,"freshnessFactor":85,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":50,"baseWeight":0.25,"globalWeight":0.0625,"contribution":-0.54,"asOf":"2026-Q2","note":"CB assets/GDP impulse -1.20pp"},{"id":"broad_usd_pressure","title":"Broad USD Liquidity Pressure","pillar":"Liquidity","rawScore":44.1,"effectiveScore":44.1,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":-0.29,"asOf":"2026-09","note":"Broad USD 1M change 0.31%"},{"id":"nfci","title":"US Financial Conditions","pillar":"Systemic Risk","rawScore":76,"effectiveScore":69.9,"confidence":76.5,"freshnessFactor":85,"sourceFactor":90,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.25,"globalWeight":0.0625,"contribution":1.24,"asOf":"2026-10-09","note":"NFCI -0.50; lower = easier conditions"},{"id":"global_financial_stress","title":"US Financial Stress","pillar":"Systemic Risk","rawScore":81.3,"effectiveScore":73.9,"confidence":76.5,"freshnessFactor":85,"sourceFactor":90,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.25,"globalWeight":0.0625,"contribution":1.5,"asOf":"2026-10-09","note":"Financial stress -0.72; lower = calmer"},{"id":"corporate_credit_distress","title":"High-Yield Credit Stress","pillar":"Systemic Risk","rawScore":75.7,"effectiveScore":63.9,"confidence":54,"freshnessFactor":60,"sourceFactor":90,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.25,"globalWeight":0.0625,"contribution":0.87,"asOf":"2026-10-16","note":"High-yield OAS 331bp"},{"id":"spec_positioning","title":"Speculative Positioning Score","pillar":"Systemic Risk","rawScore":57.7,"effectiveScore":55.1,"confidence":66.7,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":66.7,"baseWeight":0.1,"globalWeight":0.025,"contribution":0.13,"asOf":"2026-10-20","note":"CFTC risk-appetite score 57.7/100"},{"id":"global_credit_vulnerability","title":"Global Credit Vulnerability","pillar":"Systemic Risk","rawScore":81.2,"effectiveScore":65.6,"confidence":50,"freshnessFactor":50,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.15,"globalWeight":0.0375,"contribution":0.59,"asOf":"2025-Q4","note":"Median private credit gap -8.01pp"}],"positiveDrivers":[{"id":"core_cpi_momentum","title":"US Core Inflation Momentum","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":89.5,"effectiveScore":83.5,"confidence":85,"freshnessFactor":85,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":1.68,"asOf":"2026-08-01","note":"Core CPI 3M annualized 1.43%"},{"id":"global_financial_stress","title":"US Financial Stress","pillar":"Systemic Risk","rawScore":81.3,"effectiveScore":73.9,"confidence":76.5,"freshnessFactor":85,"sourceFactor":90,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.25,"globalWeight":0.0625,"contribution":1.5,"asOf":"2026-10-09","note":"Financial stress -0.72; lower = calmer"},{"id":"labor_recession_signal","title":"US Labor Recession Signal","pillar":"Cycle","rawScore":92,"effectiveScore":87.8,"confidence":90,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":90,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.15,"globalWeight":0.0375,"contribution":1.42,"asOf":"2026-09-01","note":"Labor gap 0.00pp; recession threshold 0.50pp"}],"negativeDrivers":[{"id":"real_yield_10y","title":"US 10Y Real Yield","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":20.6,"effectiveScore":20.6,"confidence":100,"freshnessFactor":100,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":-1.47,"asOf":"2026-10-30","note":"10Y real yield 2.60%"},{"id":"global_cb_liquidity_impulse","title":"Global Central Bank Liquidity Impulse","pillar":"Liquidity","rawScore":29.7,"effectiveScore":41.4,"confidence":42.5,"freshnessFactor":85,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":50,"baseWeight":0.25,"globalWeight":0.0625,"contribution":-0.54,"asOf":"2026-Q2","note":"CB assets/GDP impulse -1.20pp"},{"id":"global_policy_breadth","title":"Global Monetary Policy Breadth","pillar":"Inflation & Policy","rawScore":21.5,"effectiveScore":40,"confidence":35,"freshnessFactor":35,"sourceFactor":100,"coverageFactor":100,"baseWeight":0.2,"globalWeight":0.05,"contribution":-0.5,"asOf":"2026-09","note":"Easing balance -35.0pp"}],"interpretation":["The macro backdrop is mixed and transitional; patience and signal confirmation matter more than directional conviction.","Cycle 64.8, Inflation & Policy 55.1, Liquidity 46.8, Systemic Risk 67.3 (100 = benign/supportive).","Systemic Risk is the strongest pillar while Liquidity is the weakest (20.5pt spread).","Strongest support: US Core Inflation Momentum. Main drag: US 10Y Real Yield."]},"methodology":{"version":"3.0","pillarWeights":{"Cycle":0.25,"Inflation & Policy":0.25,"Liquidity":0.25,"Systemic Risk":0.25},"principle":"Each metric is continuously scored 0–100. Data-quality confidence = freshness × source × coverage. Low-confidence signals are shrunk toward neutral (50), not discarded.","regimeBands":[{"min":78,"label":"RISK-ON"},{"min":65,"label":"SELECTIVE RISK-ON"},{"min":50,"label":"NEUTRAL / TRANSITION"},{"min":38,"label":"DEFENSIVE"},{"min":0,"label":"RISK-OFF"}]},"degraded":false}